05th of June. The government says a lot that it is necessary to change the tax legislation. What will change is unclear, but one thing is clear: the tax burden will increase in the next six years.
The government urgently need to find 8 trillion rubles to Finance the "may decrees of the President." Various options are available:
- raising the retirement age;
- changes in the budget rules regarding the distribution of revenues from hydrocarbon exports;
- placement of government bonds.
But these sources are not enough, the remaining amount is planned to be collected at the expense of tax "maneuvers". That is why at the St. Petersburg international economic forum, the participants listened carefully to the words of the first Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, in order to anticipate the government's plans.
The main news – the tax system is waiting for additional adjustment, then a temporary lull. "We say that our tax proposals are currently being finalized in the government. In the next six years there will be changes in the field of tax legislation", - quotes RBC words Anton Siluanov.
However, despite the fact that only the "pre-construction of the tax system" has been announced, experts predict that there will be serious social upheaval and even greater impoverishment of citizens. Summarizing the report of the Minister of Finance, his answers to journalists and fragments of behind-the-scenes conversations, we can now outline the upcoming changes and their consequences.
Oil and gas sector
One of the sources of budget replenishment is the completion of the tax maneuver in the oil and gas sector of the economy. The maneuver, which was launched in 2015, is to reduce export duties in exchange for an increase in the mineral extraction tax (met) rate. It was planned that this reform will be completed in 2017, but the oil and energy ministries were categorically against the completion of the reform. In their opinion, the abolition of duties will lead to a sharp drop in the processing margin, which will hurt the refiners.
In early April 2018, the Association of oil refining and petrochemical companies, which includes more than two hundred refineries, sent an official letter to Dmitry Medvedev with a request to postpone the maneuver until 2023. The chamber of Commerce also supported the idea that this maneuver is currently untimely.
However, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the government plans to complete the maneuver, and even announced the first steps. "We have already made a decision to reduce excise duty from 1 July 2018," - said the Minister of Finance at a business Breakfast Sberbank of Russia.
As for ordinary motorists, despite the reduction in excise taxes, they have no reason for joy. The weakening of fiscal policy will not lead to a decrease in gasoline prices, the maximum will slow their growth a little.
The value added tax (VAT)
Another option to replenish the budget is to increase VAT. Moreover, the administration of this tax at a height: the share of fraud with VAT fell below 1% in the whole country.
Experts predict that the most likely scenario is an increase in VAT from 18% to 20% while abandoning the preferential rate of 10%. According to estimates of the Analytical Credit Rating Agencies (ACRA), the increasing rate of VAT by 2% will allow the government to replenish the budget by about a third of the required 8 trillion However, most experts agree that the VAT increase will impact more heavily on the final consumer, i.e. us. In simple terms, the reforms will be financed from the pockets of ordinary citizens.
The rise in prices for everything, the decline in purchasing power, the flourishing of the shadow economy, the crisis in retail trade, a surge in wages in an envelope, hidden unemployment – this is not the whole list of problems that can arise against the background of increasing tax burden on the population and business.
At the same time, the government does not plan to raise VAT even higher, even as part of the 22/22 maneuver (i.e., increasing VAT to 22% while reducing insurance premiums from 30% to 22). "We have long argued about which format is better than 90/60/90 or 22/22, came to the opinion that 90/60/90 is still better," the Minister of Finance joked in an interview with journalists.
The fact that the change in the VAT rate should go in tandem with the change in the rate of insurance premiums, and otherwise it is a complete deception, and said in the Russian Union of Industrialists and entrepreneurs. And it is difficult to argue with them. Insurance premiums are a headache for all employers in the country. High rates of insurance premiums have encouraged employers to use envelope wages, which has recently become even more problematic. Pressure on business in this aspect will only increase, given that the administration of insurance premiums is now engaged in the Federal tax service.
Another option, voiced by Siluanov , is the redistribution of Moscow's revenues from oil and gas companies in favor of the regions. But this initiative was not supported by the mayor of the capital Sergei Sobyanin. The mayor of the capital said that the idea of "selecting and sharing" is not good for our country, so the idea is unlikely to become a reality.
However, there has been clarity on two "eternal themes": Anton Siluanov denied the introduction of a sales tax and an increase in the personal income tax (pit). Earlier, the idea of increasing the pit was strongly supported by Sergei Glazyev, who proposed to introduce a progressive scale of personal income tax with an upper limit of 30-40%, which will replenish the budget by several trillion rubles. However, it is unlikely that the government will dare to take this step.
Tax on cyclists
According to analysts of FINAM, the government for the implementation of the may presidential decrees will be needed in 2-2,5 times more than reported, that is about 16 trillion under the most optimistic forecasts and up to 20 trillion rubles and more negative. Against this background, it is not so suddenly looks like a proposal to introduce a road tax for cyclists.
Of course, the announced initiatives are not final, the government has yet to finalize them, the Minister of Finance has repeatedly repeated this. Meanwhile, the tax climate in Russia in the next six years will maintain its clear trend towards tightening, that is, to increase the tax burden for the population.