May 15. Implementation of the program of Vladimir Putin on the development of economy of Russia till 2024 may require a cash infusion of about $ 90 trillion.
The decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204 of may 07, 2018 this is the first long document that promises sweeping changes in the country. The 15 pages of the document define the goals of Russia's development until 2024, as the President sees them, and these goals will become a "road map" for the government. The document also contains a set of indicators to measure the effectiveness of the government itself in improving the living standards of the population. If the goals are achieved, Russia will be among the leaders in terms of economic development and the quality of life of the population.
Re-elected as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has estimated total expenses for execution of the decree of the President in the 8 trillion. RUB, after a while, this amount increased to 25 trillion. however, experts believe that this figure is too low. The real figure is at half of the annual GDP, i.e. 60 – 70 trillion. RUB, and maybe on the level of GDP, i.e. more than 90 trillion. From this follows the question, where is the money?
Everyone understands that there is no such money in the country's current budget. To execute this decree of the President, the economy of the country will have to grow rapidly, as in the fairy tale, where the fungus grew in the rain so that under it there was enough space for everyone. Another option for financing the presidential programme is to increase public debt. In this case, it will be necessary to increase the volume of loans to about 100% of GDP, which, of course, is undesirable. It is better, of course, to Finance improving the quality of life of citizens through economic growth.
The presidential decree stipulates that the average per capita GDP and labor productivity in Russia will grow by 60-70% or 9-10% per year over the next 6 years. No less difficult is the task of Russia's entry into the top 5 largest economies in the world. To achieve this goal, it will be necessary to accelerate innovation development and digitalization, to increase the share of companies that use innovative technologies in their activities to 50%, to expand exports, to build transport corridors and to develop small and medium-sized businesses. It is these measures that are proposed to be implemented in order to achieve economic growth of at least 5% per year with inflation of less than 4%.
Particularly striking is the goal to increase the volume of exports of non-primary non-energy goods to $250 billion per year. We hope that the authors of this document know who and what we will sell and where we are waiting with our products.
Hard way to the stars
However, the goals are achievable. The question is not whether Russia will enter the top 5 most powerful economies in the world, but when it will happen. It may well take more than six years to achieve those goals, but sooner or later our country will achieve that goal. At the time, many experts ironically about the goal to catch up with Portugal on the quality of life and spiritual GDP.
Nevertheless, at the end of 2017, Russia's per capita GDP amounted to $28,000, in Portugal - $30,000, that is, Russia is literally one step away from achieving the goal, within the next few years, our country will definitely overtake Portugal. It is only necessary to identify the most effective measures that will have the greatest effect in the short and medium term.
If we analyze the sectors of the economy with the highest productivity, we can see that these industries are those that exploit natural resources – coal mining, fishing, oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, electricity, transport, as well as industries that serve the above, for example, Finance.
Clearly, if the government is to achieve rapid productivity growth, it is necessary to develop new non-energy sectors of the economy that rely on natural resources and target international markets. The development of large export-oriented companies producing highly processed products from Russian raw materials will also help to fight poverty, as they will help to create new jobs. In other words, the government and private capital need to invest in large-scale business oriented to sustainable demand in world markets.
There is another option for the development of the country. This option implies that the population itself creates business. This path involves the development of small and medium-sized businesses throughout the country. This path is more difficult, because it requires the development of citizens a series of skills and abilities. This is more difficult than the development of agricultural holdings and chemical corporations, but the second way will give a stable basis for the long-term development of Russia.
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