May 08. On the eve (may 7, 2018) at 12:00 Moscow time was the inauguration of the President of the Russian Federation. The new term of Vladimir Putin will be the starting point for the renewal of the political system in Russia.
The procedure of inauguration inevitably raises the question of how the policy of the Kremlin will change, what the population expects in the next six years. These questions can be answered only after the formation of the new government and its first decisions, as well as the adoption of the first presidential decrees.
But here's what will happen necessarily and not at the request of the first persons of the country – a change of the party elite, Zhirinovsky, Yavlinsky, Zyuganov and Mironov – policy 90s and 2000s have grown old, and to replace them will come a new person.
An important and often overlooked feature of Russia's political system is the irremovability of party leaders. For the most part, the main characters have come to us since 1993, when the first elections to the state Duma. This applies to all the above politicians, except Sergei Mironov, who took a leading position in politics in 2001, becoming Chairman of the Federation Council.
For comparison, in the countries of Eastern Europe during this period, party leaders have been replaced several times. Such irremovability of party leaders speaks a lot about the features of the political system of Russia and the features of the current system.
Party as the company
Political parties in Russia are not parties; rather, they are joint – stock companies, whose controlling stake is held by the leader. Leader in the provisional agreement allows the party or those of other sponsors (minority shareholders). So the party "the Apple" has sold the post of Vice-speaker of the state Duma Mikhail Yuriev, the liberal democratic party, Mikhail Gutseriev, the Communist party – Gennady Semigin.
However, sometimes investors tried to bribe the entire "company", as it was in the Communist party in 2003 – 2004. Then Semigin has tried to shift Gennady Zyuganov, however, as you can see, it failed. Except in this case, the positions of the party leaders remained firm.
This was facilitated not only by holding in their hands all the levers of party management, but also by the absolute indifference of society. The society had no influence on the parties: parties were organized not from below, but from above, as typical chiefdom projects. Even the Communist party, which had at least some ideology and support in society, could not avoid the temptation of chiefdom and turned into a personal project of Gennady Zyuganov.
However, the upcoming changes in party leadership between the electoral cycles of 2016 – 2018 and 2021, when the next parliamentary elections will be held, will be due not to the influence of society, but to the natural process of aging. By the elections of 2021, the current leaders of the parties will be 75 years, except Sergei Mironov, he will be 68 years old.
Who will replace
It is obvious that the choice of a new leader will take place without public participation. Instead of open elections, there will be closed, which will allow you to carefully change leaders through nomenclature selection. Roughly speaking, the current leaders of the parties will replace Zyuganov-2, Mironov-2, Zyuganov-2.
The LDPR already knows the name of the new leader – the son of Vladimir Zhirinovsky – Igor Lebedev. He has negative image and zero charisma with him the party can only wait for the defeat. Therefore, without the participation of Vladimir Zhirinovsky in one capacity or another party will not do.
United Russia is the only party that has no nominal leader. The power party is associated first of all with Vladimir Putin, and the situation in party is defined not by intraparty intrigues, and the decisions made by presidential administration. Formally change of the leader in party happened recently, with arrival to a leading position of Andrey Turchak (the former Governor of the Pskov region).
Heroes of the elections-2018
The presidential election in 2018 showed that there is a need for change in society, and there are people who are able to make these changes. New figures of these elections – Pavel Grudinin and Ksenia Sobchak. And Alexei Navalny, the elections of the President were not allowed, but he did not despair and continued to defend his position, bring together caring people.
As for Grudinin, after the elections he took a pause. At the present time a politician tries to simultaneously participate in the work of the Communist party and in the activities of the Association under the name "permanent conference of the national patrioticheskih forces of Russia" (abbreviated as PDS NPSR – approx. author's.) He was attracted to the Communist party because it was a strong organization, which was difficult to establish in the current reality. On the other hand, in the party he will always be in the background. In PDS NPSR Grudinina has all chances to become the leader, though the prospects of the movement are not clear.
Ksenia Sobchak still does not make harsh statements. It is not yet known whether she will remain in politics or withdraw from it.
The policies of the new time
It is impossible to exclude the emergence of new leaders, still unknown to the masses. For example, among the possible future political discoveries can be identified the head of Serpukhov district of Moscow, which thundered on all YouTube his appeal to Vladimir Putin: Shestun named the performers ostensibly Kremlin order to eliminate political opponents with terrible details about blackmail, threats, bribery and harassment of the objectionable.
The fact that there is a need for change, showed the events that occurred between the elections and the inauguration: a storm of indignation throughout the country after the fire in Kemerovo, "children's rallies", rigidly dispersed by the authorities, on the eve of Vladimir Putin's inauguration, garbage battles in the Moscow region. The discontent is spontaneous, yet almost no one controlled. Official parties have so far refrained from taking a very cautious position, non-system oppositionists, for example, Alexei Navalny, have not yet proposed a clear plan of action.
There is a wide scope for the emergence of new politicians. The same Shestun has violated the applicable rules: to break the silence dinner, washed the dirty linen in public, and remained at his post. It seems that the Kremlin does not know what to do with such.
In the autumn of 2018, Moscow mayor elections will be held. Surprises no one expects, but they can be a test of the readiness of the presidential administration to allow the public to discuss urban problems in a wider format than before. In previous years, the Kremlin has trapped itself, clearing the public domain of a few independent politicians. Possible easing in the upcoming elections in Moscow could be a hint of at least a declarative revival of regional policy.
For 6 years as President Vladimir Putin will have to make a number of important decisions on the further functioning of the political system of Russia. Do not forget that as a politician Putin has been formed during perestroika and the 90s, making a bet on the Democrats in the person of Anatoly Sobchak. The 1990s taught him complete distrust of public policy and public action. But if it were not for Russia, Putin himself would never become head of state without making such a dizzying career.
Theoretically, during his term as President, Putin can rely on selfless power and carry out reforms that will enable Russians to influence their lives more. In particular, the Kremlin can give more opportunities to the population to influence the formation of at least local authorities.
Sooner or later, it will be necessary to change the current political power – to do it better gradually, not randomly revolutionary.