28 of July. On the eve of the ruble fell against the Euro and the dollar until at least March of 2015 amid falling oil prices. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell below $54, but experts do not expect the acceleration of the fall of the ruble. In their opinion, the dollar rate may reach 60 rubles. The Euro rose 2.1 66,27 ruble to ruble during trading on the Moscow exchange, the dollar rose to 1.44 59,86 ruble to ruble.
"Preconditions for disaster there. The situation is currently better than it was at the end of 2014. Considerable payments on an external debt Russia will be only in September," - said the chief economist for Russia and CIS "Renaissance Capital" Oleg Kuzmin.
On 27 of July, the dollar has not reached the level of 60 rubles, and reaching 59,86 rubles gradually began to decline and by evening reached 59.4 per ruble.
Falling oil prices
The main reason for the fall of the ruble, according to experts, is cheaper oil. The value of the futures contract on Brent crude oil with delivery in September at the auction of the London stock exchange on 27 July fell 2% to $53.5 per barrel (this is the minimum level of 13 of January 2014).
"First and foremost, at the fall of the ruble was affected by the oil," - says Oleg Kuzmin. "The ruble at the moment shows a very negative trend. The dynamics of oil prices is the main driver of this movement."
The purchase of foreign currency by the Bank of Russia
The second reason for the fall of the ruble, according to experts, is the purchase of foreign currency by Bank of Russia. "The Central Bank continues to buy foreign currency", - said Oleg Kuzmin. From 13 may, the Central Bank conducts regular purchases of foreign currency to replenish international reserves. Operations are conducted daily in the amount of $100-200 million From 13 may to 22 July, the Central Bank purchased on the domestic foreign exchange market of $9.672 billion.
The collapse of the stock market in China
Another factor affecting the ruble exchange rate dynamics is the collapse of the stock market in China. 27 Jul powerful fall ended trading on the stock markets of China. At the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite index fell by 8.48%, reaching a value of 3725,56 points.
"In this backdrop of reduced risk appetite, withdrawal from risky assets to less risky," explained Oleg Kuzmin.
The fed and the Bank of Russia
This week will be a meeting of the Central Banks of Russia and the United States. On July 29, the Federal reserve must make a decision on interest rates. "Any major changes in monetary policy are expected, however, it is possible that the fed will prepare the ground for a rate hike on 17 September," - said the analyst of Sberbank CIB Tom Levinson.
In addition, the ruble presses the upcoming July 31 meeting of the Bank of Russia key rate. Sberbank CIB's experts expect that the key rate will be reduced to 10.5.
