13 April. This time the fall of the ruble is caused only by geopolitics, which means that the situation is not so bad, but the risks remain.
Since April 6, after the US Treasury announced the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, the Moscow Stock Exchange index fell by 4.7%, while on April 9-10 it fell by 10%. However, this dynamics does not directly affect the Russian economy. Strong fluctuations in the stock market occur every few years, and a recession usually occurs once every 10 years.
But if the correction in the stock market is protracted, then this is inevitably transferred to the real sector of the economy. This is due to the outflow of liquidity, the growth of inflation and inflationary expectations, further negative factors increase, exacerbating the situation.
As a rule, the prolonged decline in the stock market in Russia, which affected the real sector of the economy, was due to negative dynamics in the stock and commodity markets of the world. If the correction occurred due to single negative events not related to the economy, then the return to previous levels occurred over a period of several weeks to several months.
At the moment, the market has fallen because of the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, while oil prices and stock indexes in the US are growing. This means that not everything is lost and the market fall will not hit the real sector of the Russian economy so much.
Sanctions and public debt of Russia
Sanctions against Russia's debt have not been introduced and are not currently being planned. In circulation at the moment there are 14 issues of sovereign Eurobonds in Russia. In the summer of 2018 it is planned to pay off the release for $ 3.5 billion.
The Ministry of Finance also plans to place bonds for $ 8 billion. If the US sanctions, investors registered in the United States will not be able to buy debt securities. However, funds registered in other countries will retain this possibility.
If the Ministry of Finance, for whatever reasons, adjusts its bond plans, for example, because of unfavorable market conditions, it does not carry any risks, since the budget is practically independent of external borrowings: the state has accumulated reserves for $ 457 billion.
В первый день падения рубля фондовый рынок потерял более $50 млрд капитализации. Однако уже на следующий день котировки большинства бумаг немного вернули свои позиции, а некоторые, например, акции «Сургутнефтегаза» и «Газпрома» стали стоить даже больше, чем до падения. Акции «Транснефти» обновили максимум.
Из-за повышения маржинальных требований некоторые инвесторы на Московской бирже были вынуждены продать акции компаний, которые не попали под санкции, что привело к снижению котировок по ним. Обычно после резких и сильных движений рынку необходимо время, чтобы успокоиться. Эксперты прогнозируют, что волатильность на фондовом рынке пройдёт не раньше, чем через несколько недель.
Среди основных рисков – это отток инвесторов, которые полтора года назад приобрели рубли и приобретали на них ОФЗ, получая на этих операциях доход до 10%. Если курс доллара по отношению к рублю дойдёт до отметки 65 – 66 рублей за доллар, то сделки carry trade начнут разворачиваться в обратную сторону, что вызовет падение котировок облигаций и, как следствие, увеличение маржинальных требований по долговым бумагам со стороны клиринговой организации Мосбиржи. Это, в свою очередь, может привести к маржин-коллам у крупных игроков. Это приведёт к ещё большему падению рубля.
Что ждать от рубля
The rate of ruble weakening is gradually slowing down. The dollar-ruble exchange rate has not hit a high since December 2016. The outflow of rubles is noticeable, but there is no agiotage and an acute shortage of liquidity. This is most likely due to the fact that market participants expect the intervention of the Central Bank in the event of a sharp weakening of the ruble, so they do not panic much.
Up to what levels the dollar may grow against the ruble, will depend on the news, the efficiency of the Central Bank and the mood in the market. It is impossible to foresee these factors.
Apparently, the struggle will unfold at the mark of 66 rubles per dollar. This is a level that is likely to accelerate the outflow of foreign investors from Russian bonds. On the full stabilization of the situation on the market it will take about 4 - 8 weeks.
In the future, experts predict a strengthening of the ruble at around 58 - 60 rubles per dollar.
Will the cut in the key rate in April
Currently, market conditions hamper the easing of monetary policy. The reduction of the key rate in the current conditions will help speculators to play on the weakening of the domestic currency. In the money market, repo transactions will not become cheaper.
Players in the stock market and analysts are waiting for the Central Bank to react to what is happening. Sergey Shvetsov, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia, commenting on the situation, noted that the Central Bank sees the risks of ruble weakening and the possible consequences of this, so I am ready to apply a forgotten instrument of currency interventions that will help to bring down panic if it arises.
The situation on the foreign exchange market will certainly affect the real sector of the economy. The Central Bank is not likely to reduce the key rate in April with a high degree of probability. Inflationary expectations will rise, and inflation may rise to 3.0 - 3.2% according to official data.