The referendum on Scottish independence: forecast

the referendum on Scottish independence, the results of the referendum in Scotland, the opinion of people in Scotland

The referendum on Scottish independence is held on 18 of September 2014.

Back in 1707, the question was raised about the legality of finding of Scotland as part of England, but openly to discuss the issue began only in the 1930-ies. At the time there was talk only about the extension of autonomy within a unified state.

Thoughts of secession has been clearly formed in the minds of people after the 1970s, oil had been discovered Brent (off the coast of Scotland). Protest the company led to the 1979 referendum on the establishment of the Scottish Parliament, which has the power to partially dispose of local Finance and, including oil revenues. "For" voted 51.6% of voters, but it was not enough. The second attempt to change things was made in 1997 (the second referendum). This time everything worked, the will of the electorate was adopted. According to the results of the referendum in 1999 Scotland got its own Parliament with certain powers in the field of Finance.

In 2007 was first raised on independence. However, in that year, the supporters of this idea failed to achieve independence. To return to the question of independence succeeded only in 2011. January 10, 2012 was announced the approximate timing of the referendum – autumn 2014.

March 21, 2013 was declared the exact date of the referendum on 18 September 2014. November 26, 2013, the company was presented the White paper – a document, consisting of 670 pages describing the structure of the new state. In this document it is proposed to keep the British pound as currency, and as the head of state is invited to leave the British Queen. The document spelled out the necessity of creation of own army, the exportation from the territory of Scotland of nuclear waste, tax collection without raising rates, raising the minimum wage and other issues.

In his new year speech, Prime Minister of great Britain David Cameron called on the Scots to vote against independence, he stressed that "the people of Northern Ireland and Wales want Scotland remained part of the UK."

Who is eligible to participate in the referendum

According to the law in the referendum may participate in the following categories:

- British citizens residing in Scotland;

- citizens of EU countries who live permanently in Scotland;

citizens of Commonwealth countries who live permanently in Scotland;

members of the house of lords who live in Scotland;

- the military of the United Kingdom who registered as voters in Scotland;

- servants of the British Government who are registered as voters in Scotland.

Possible consequences

In December 2013, with reference to anonymous representatives of supermarkets Wm Morrison, Tesco, The Financial Times and Asda was published on the assumption that after the Declaration of independence, the price in supermarkets in Scotland will increase. This is because in Scotland more stringent rules for the sale of alcohol, more expensive transportation, high cost of doing business. Later, however, the representatives of Tesco has officially stated that "it is not the truth", they also reported that regardless of the outcome of the referendum, the supermarket will offer "best available rates".

In February 2014 he published a number of applications, completely changing the position of Scotland after independence.

For example, George Osborne (UK Chancellor) has said that Scotland after independence will lose its right to use British pound sterling. He said that "this is not a collection of music CDs, which can be split with a partner after divorce". Earlier about the impossibility to apply the currency stated and other Ministers of the United Kingdom.

The Minister of energy, tourism and enterprise in Scotland Fergus Ewing said "Scotland after independence is not planning to leave the EU". In his turn, Jose Manual Barroso (President European Commission), commenting on the possible acquisition of Scotland's independence, said: "In the case of a new country, a new state out of part of another current member state of the EU, this country will have to apply for membership in the EU again. And it will be difficult, if not impossible to get approval from all member countries of the EU for accession".

The most popular actors, famous personalities spoke out against the separation of Scotland. So, Kate moss at the ceremony music awards Brit Awards read the petition calling for a vote against Scottish independence.

In March 2014 the message of John McAnally (British Vice-Admiral) that if Scotland separates, then the UK will have to spend billions of dollars on the transfer of nuclear submarines of the Royal Navy, who is now based in the Scottish Faslane.

The bookmaker did not remain aloof from future events. They put odds on the outcome of the referendum. UK residents betting on the turnout of voters and the outcome of the independence referendum. The total bet amount exceeded the previous record figure of 3.3 million dollars. 80% of bets is that the results of the referendum, Scotland will gain independence. An unnamed resident of the UK, has put $ 1.3 million that the independence of Scotland will not find. In case of victory the player will get 1.6 million dollars

Forecast: how will this referendum

Preliminary polls conducted in 2014, predicted the victory to the opponents of independence. However, with the approaching date of the referendum there is a leveling of the difference between supporters and opponents of independence. A poll conducted in early September showed that about half of respondents are in favor of independence.

the referendum on Scottish independence, the results of the referendum in Scotland, the opinion of people in Scotland

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