Gasoline prices will go to growth again

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08 of September. Over the past few months the price of a liter of gasoline for vehicles has not changed: during this period prices fluctuated by 1 - 2 pennies.

The process of raising fuel prices at retail has slowed, due to the stabilization of wholesale prices, and fuel reserves from producers. However, the autumn will make their adjustments, and in October the price of fuel will rise. At this time begin to operate the increase in excise duties that happened this spring. According to experts, petrol will rise in price approximately by 1 ruble per liter, for the whole year growth will average 2 – 3 rubles per liter.

Statistics

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Based on data from the Central dispatching Department of fuel energy complex (CDU TEK), for the current year of one liter of gasoline AI-92 rose by 1.12 rubles (i.e. by 3.24 %), AI-95 – 1.33 ruble (3,59 %). Summer and winter diesel fuel increased by an average of 2 rubles per liter. Fuel prices stable for almost 4 weeks. The only region where from August 28 to September 4 gasoline AI-95 has risen in price (nearly 0.10 RUB) is Novosibirsk oblast.

Currently, the prices returned to the level from which they began their sharp rise in may – June of the current year. Experts believe that the high season is coming to an end. Experts of Agency "analysis of commodity markets", analyzing the situation on the fuel market, concluded that on the fuel market the last 4 weeks, there was a tendency to lower wholesale prices, which led to a lull in retail. "Retail fuel sales is a competitive sector that does not allow the prices to rise only at the request of market participants. In the wholesale segment, it is different as it can be called almost monopolized", - said the President of the Russian fuel Union Yevgeny Arkusha.

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He also said that now the market is full of inventory of motor fuels, and this is confirmed by CDU TEK. According to CDU TEK, 29 Aug inventory in refineries and plants of oil remained 1,796 million tons. According to the Agency "analysis of commodity markets", which is about 300 thousand tons less than in 2015, but this is more than enough for the period of high demand for fuel. Practice leader for the oil and gas sector, KPMG in Russia and CIS Anton Usov said that the growth of commercial stocks of fuel associated with refinery upgrades.

However, double the increase in excise duties (on 1 January and 1 April) can not influence prices. The Ministry of Finance, following the increase in excise taxes, expected only due to the April increase, a liter of gasoline will cost 2 rubles, diesel – 1 ruble. According to senior consultant VYGON Consulting Alexander Bylkin until the end of the year prices for fuel will continue in the range of 1 ruble per liter. If you count on already established prices, by the end of the year gasoline AI-92 and AI-95 will increase to 2.1 – 2.3 ruble. According to Eugene's Arkose the rise in gasoline prices may reach 3 cents per liter.

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But the judge found something positive in this situation: "in the past year, and this year the growth of prices for fuel have lower than the level of inflation, - the expert said. – But if to look not at the relative increase and the absolute level of prices in the regions, it becomes clear that the range of cost is wide." As informs "the Russian newspaper" price range in July in the regions amounted to 10 rubles. Currently, the difference in prices in the regions is preserved. For example, in the Kemerovo region at the present time the cost of a liter of gasoline AI-92 on average 33.75 ruble, AI-95 – 37,12 of the ruble and the data CDU TEK. On Kamchatka the prices above: AI-92 is 43,34 ruble, AI-95 – 46,1 ruble.

The difference in fuel costs within the region is linked, including, and with the quality of the goods sold. Sometimes instead of quality fuel sold by the surrogate with the specifications below regulated. Population annually sends about 500 – 800 complaints in Rosstandart on poor quality gasoline. By the end of 2015, it became clear that most violations are fixed at independent gas stations. Among the leaders in low-quality fuels - North West, North Caucasian, southern and Volga districts.

Oil production

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At the same time, production of oil and gas condensate in Russia in 2016 broke the record for 25 years. Daily oil production in Russia from September 4 to September 6 held above 11 million barrels – about it says the data CDU TEK. This level of production was last recorded 25 years ago, according to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", with reference to Bloomberg.

Oil industry this year has already second record (the first record was set in March – 10,912 million barrels). This is not surprising, since the active phase of negotiations Russia, OPEC members and non-cartel producers about the likely freezing of oil production. In anticipation of reaching agreement on this question, which had to be reached on 17 April, but they failed, Russia made a breakthrough.

5 of September Russia and Saudi Arabia have signed a joint statement on the desire to stabilize the situation in the oil market, UAE, Venezuela, Ecuador and Kuwait supported the convening of new talks about the freezing. This idea was supported by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin.

On the eve the Deputy head of Department of strategy on the market of carbohydrates RBC Capital Markets Helima Croft, "the joint statement is an indicator of the extreme economic pressure that is experienced by manufacturers. The expert believes that such joint action, Saudi Arabia and Russia will increase the possibility of joint action while maintaining the pressure on prices from excess supply in the market.

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