Today this question worries many. However, a definite answer to this question is no. It is difficult to simulate the future, when every day there are new horrifying events. The President of Ukraine every day gives more stringent orders, suppressing the will of the army civilians of their nation.
Today Ukraine is a full participant in international relations. Why? Because Ukraine is an economically disadvantaged state. The international community has come to accept as partners only a strong state, capable of showing its economic power and not those who walk with outstretched hand, begging for money.
Looking at the facts, you can see that Ukraine is indeed a poor country. According to the world Bank in 2013, GDP per capita, Ukraine was in 136th place out of 184 possible. Located above the Baltic States, Azerbaijan, Belarus, etc. Based on this rating, Ukraine is among the countries with income below average.
The current confrontation between Kiev and South-East of Ukraine the situation has not improved, but rather worsened. The country has made a sharp leap from poverty to poverty. Many people across the country have not received their salaries for the past six months. Businesses close, people remain without work. Interest rates on loans that were taken earlier, has increased dramatically. The hryvnia fell sharply. All of this adds stability to the economy of Ukraine and not give residents confidence in the future.
The President of Ukraine, instead of to establish the situation in the economy, further exacerbates. Instead of negotiations with the South-East over a peaceful solution to the problems, Poroshenko continues to bomb innocent people. With "field of battle" constantly come news of the death of civilians.
Most political analysts discussing the current Ukraine situation, consider obvious, "puppet status" of the new Ukrainian President. Poroshenko is often referred to as "the American Ambassador in Ukraine." It is obvious that Poroshenko is doing everything that he "advises" US. Obvious and the fact that the US goal of complete suppression of the rebels of Donbass.
To assume that the same will happen with Ukraine in the future, you need to put yourself in the place of the US authorities and try to guess what they have plan a, plan B, etc.
First of all, you need to deal with the so-called truce, which all the media present, as a "gesture of goodwill" Poroshenko. In fact, the truce was necessary for Americans and the opinion of Poroshenko, no one asked.
First, losses from the Ukrainian security forces were too large. The troops needed a respite, military vehicles needed repair and replenishment. And all of this takes time.
Secondly, the American advisers understood the need to make changes to the tactics and strategy of warfare. It took to realize the fact that Russia under the pressure of circumstances had not implemented the steps which from it expected. Despite the mass murder of punitive detachments of the national guard, the President of the Russian Federation entered armies to Ukraine. However, on the other hand. He did not help Poroshenko to suppress the rebels, as demanded by the Americans.
Thirdly, the American advisors had to be aware of the fact that despite all the power of the Ukrainian army, supported by detachments of professional soldiers, to prevail on the rebels does not work. The militia rushed to beat the Nazis, as did their glorious fathers and grandfathers in 1941-45 This guide Maidan, you may believe that on Donbass the Russian army. American advisers, in turn, well aware that no Russian military in the Donbass no, but Russia is only in humanitarian, informational support.
That is why the American advisors took this "break" to analyse a situation and to develop a new action plan, laying three new obvious scenario, which was not there before.
1. A scenario in which provides a complete failure of anti-terrorist operation.
2. A scenario in which provided partial failure of the anti-terrorist operation.
3. The complete failure of the mission of the "Maidan" - this scenario includes not only the failure of the anti-terrorist operation, but also the overthrow of the current President.
In any case, fall 2014 in Ukraine will be a time of severe disasters, the drop of the economy, energy crisis, mass plague among the population.
Regardless of future developments, the future of Ukraine is represented in dark colors. Because the government is not doing anything to improve the situation in the country.
