In response to the sanctions Russia has imposed its own counter-sanctions on the import of products. What it all led? In this and will try today to understand.
After the introduction of the Government's counter-sanctions, the Russian market has lost almost third of imported meat and milk and half of the fish products. This is confirmed by the data of the Federal customs service (FCS) for the 3rd quarter of this year.
The FCS data suggest that delivery of food from "sanctions list" in the third quarter of this year sharply declined: meat exports fell nearly 26%, beef by 26%, fish 48%, fruit 8%, vegetables – 6%.
The list of products prohibited for import to Russia, was published on 07 August and affected the supply in Russia of products from several countries – the US, EU States, Canada, Australia and Norway. This list includes pork, meat of cattle, poultry, dairy products, fish and crustaceans, sausages, fruits, vegetables, nuts, etc.
Andrei Sizov (managing Director of the analytical center "SovEcon") reported that the reasons why Russia was unable immediately to provide alternative delivery of the products included in the "sanction list", several. "First, Latin America, Russia is not so important the buyer to overnight to rebuild all the logistics. Secondly, to remove suddenly all barriers Russian regulatory bodies is also not so easy," said Andrei Sizov.
In the fourth quarter of 2014, the situation has improved markedly, and this is confirmed by the data of the FCS. Retired products have become much faster to be replaced: in November, the import of dairy products increased in comparison with September by 44.7%, meat – by 11.4%, fish – by 36,7%, vegetables – by 17.5%, vegetables – on 85.6 per cent.
Interesting fact: in the third quarter of 2014 in Russia were imported products from non-traditional supply regions. So, from Georgia for the first time since 2013 on the shelves of Russian stores got cucumbers, tomatoes, persimmons, plums and grapes, from Kazakhstan – cream and condensed milk.
Analysts at the research company "ROMIR" has calculated that Russians have not become less: the increase in the cost of food, which began in July of the current year (+14% compared to the same period of 2013), continued in August and September. People buy food, especially long-term storage, and also remains "prohibited" goods.
In October, the expenses of Russians went up again by 17.5%.
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Meat
The import of meat in Russia has changed significantly in the share of supplier countries. The largest increase supplies of meat from Kazakhstan fixed – deliveries from this country increased almost in 6 times. Also pleased with the increase in deliveries New Zealand, Nicaragua, and Argentina (44, 173 and 146 %, respectively). Meat exports from Ukraine declined by almost 52%, Belarus increased exports by almost 32%.
Milk
In real terms imports of milk decreased significantly, however, in money terms – on the contrary increased. In comparison with last year the imported milk in terms of money increased by 33%. Little need to import milk has not been – said Victoria Berli (senior expert of Institute of a conjuncture of the agrarian markets). "Companies have a stock of milk powder and Dolgorukaya products. A critical situation may occur in December – January when these stocks will end," said Victoria Berli.
Hungary, Chile, USA, Croatia and Romania, Korea and Japan have completely stopped the supply of dairy products to Russia. At the same time, increased supplies from Spain, Greece, Switzerland, Kazakhstan, Slovakia and some other countries.
Fish
Sharply increased imports of fish products from Belarus (which has no outlet to the sea)– almost twice. Another notable importer of steel Faroe Islands: in-kind deliveries increased by 7%, but in value – 92%. This country has become almost the only importer of chilled fish (a main importer of chilled fish was Norway). However, the cost of Faroese Norwegian salmon more expensive by almost $5 per 1 kg.
Fruits and vegetables
Dmitry Rylko (General Director of the Institute for agricultural market studies) warns that the introduction of temporary restrictions on the import of fruits and vegetables from Ukraine, imposed by the Rosselkhoznadzor in October, can have a negative impact on prices.
First place in the import of vegetables and left for China: mainly supplies onion, garlic, potatoes. India and Turkey are also trying to increase imports, but the greatest growth of supply reached Honduras: the importation of fruits from the country increased by 140 times.
