18 of April in Geneva must pass quadripartite meeting of foreign Ministers. The meeting must involve countries such as Russia, Ukraine, USA and EU. The agenda of this meeting – the situation in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian side promised to provide evidence that the events in southeastern Ukraine is the work of the Russians. In addition, Kiev has demanded from Moscow to return the Crimea, to withdraw its troops from the borders of Ukraine, to condemn the supporters of federalization.
However, the fact that the Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will come to this meeting. Because we all know that Ukraine was warned about the inadmissibility of military actions in Ukraine. Kiev, however, the requirements did not heed. So perhaps Catherine Ashton and John Kerry will listen to the history of Ukraine without the Russian colleagues.
All countries it is clear that Russia will not give up Crimea under any condition. Also well-known that to stabilize the situation in Ukraine without Russia is impossible. Analyzing the situation in Ukraine, you can see how the country is gradually moving towards default. Analysts predict that recovering the Ukraine only need in 2014 at least $30 billion And will receive, at the most rosy projections, Ukraine only $27 billion and then for 2 years. And it might not even get this money as Western lenders are in no hurry to sponsor the situation.
Alexander Rahr (German political scientist) said that the Europeans are very afraid of the reunification of the Russian Empire, they are ready to do everything to prevent this from happening. Europe ready to give Ukraine the money, if only it didn't depart Russia. However, free money in Europe not so much. The EU and America can give Ukraine only loans, which will still have to return. In addition, Ukraine to get these loans have to go for the harsh conditionalities by lenders, which will lead to cuts in the already low pensions, social benefits, closing hundreds of factories. All these reforms will inevitably lead to strikes, protests from the population. Rahr suggested that Europe's more profitable to sponsor Ukraine on equal footing with Russia.
However, now the Ukrainian authorities are hostile towards Russia. And why would Russia contain hostile Ukraine, and even on equal footing with the hostile West? The Russian President has recently stated clearly that Moscow will no longer sponsor the Ukraine. In addition, Gazprom has declared its intention to supply gas only on a prepaid basis.
What does Russia want?
Formally, Russia wants the federalization of Ukraine. More than 20 years the Western regions of Ukraine lived for the account of the Oriental regions, the latter imposing its will. The South-East has already shown him how this situation had enough. The current government has shown that they are willing to suppress dissent even with tanks. So isn't it time to put this right?
Actually long overdue. The West is not opposed in principle. Germany and France has long been advocated for the federalization of Ukraine. However, against her expressed by Victoria Nuland (assistant Secretary of state USA).
However, it is not the federalization of Ukraine is the main goal of Russia, it is rather a tool to achieve a more global strategic objectives. Russia seeks to prevent Ukraine NATO troops, unblock Transnistria and Crimea to unite with the part of Ukraine that wants to join Russia, to preserve the military-industrial cooperation.
Most interesting is that even now, at such a fragile time for Ukraine, Kiev does not destroy the military-industrial cooperation. The Ukrainian authorities are afraid to leave without work, hundreds of thousands of people, because it will lead to a wave of demonstrations, which further destabilizes the situation in the country.
To remove water and transport blockade of Transnistria with the Crimea and Kiev will not happen without concessions from Russia (such as gas). And even with concessions will be removed only after the elections and under pressure either from Russia (military power), or from the West (political pressure).
Alexander Rahr believes that the crisis in Ukraine will lead to consequences for all countries of the world. He suggested that in the West there are only two ways out of this situation: get closer with Russia and to establish a free economic zone or to impose full-scale sanctions against Russia and enter into a new cold war.
However, in the case of sanctions increases the risk of civil war in Ukraine, in which Russia will support South - East, and NATO will be providing to the West and the Centre advisers and weapons. All this will eventually lead to the fact that Russia would settle on the South – East and NATO in the Western part. All this will lead to the fact that during the present hostilities would be new border between Russia and what will remain from Ukraine.
No less disturbing is the fact that the Russian Federation has issued a loan to Ukraine, and now it is unclear how the new government will be returning the borrowed money that, evidently, not only did not help to solve the problems of the economy, but disappeared in an unknown direction. All these events have significantly affected the ruble, Kudrin said. Currency markets experts told